Progressive tax means that richer you are, higher marginal tax rate you pay. So, the average tax rate for a rich person is designed to be higher than a poor person.
The "unfairness" argument usually goes like this: "everyone is born equal in this nation and everyone should pay the same tax rate regardless his own money-making ability."
I am sorry, my friend, this is total horse-shit.
First, let's see where the tax money goes once it's collected from you and me. The single largest expenditure is National Defense (including Veterans Affairs). It's over $700bn and over 25% of the total budget.
Then, you tell me who benefit more from National Defense, me or Warren Buffet? For me, there are not much to be defended with. Let's say if Cuba invades US, I don't get much to lose. Well, that can't be true for Warren Buffet. He has the most stake in US and he will be the biggest loser if anything happens.
Since rich people benefit more from programs like National Defense, it makes perfect sense that they pay more.
People are dying to protect the country. Well, those poor people, to be precise. So, in order to maintain a steady stream of fresh bodies for the army, rich people have to support poor families. Therefore, Health and Human Services (the 2nd largest item on the budget) makes perfect sense.
Even small items on the budget, like those national highways, rich people drive more and benefit more. Poor folks sometimes don't even have cars! Why should they pay for something that they don't even use?
Education, another example, why should poor people pay for it given the fact that they have the higest drop out rate and lowest admission rate to college?
NASA, haha, do you think people in Harlem give a rat ass about what happens on Mars?
Oh, the Justice Department, the cops! You don't even want me to go there.
This list can go on and on.
The fact is "rich people, who may not even realize it themselves, benefit more in this country by government spending." Of course they have to pay more. This is only FAIR to do so.
Ok, now you may say why progressive tax? Rich people are paying more tax even if their marginal tax rate is the same as poor people.
Here is why: the margin utility of each extra dollar is decreasing and it's utility maximization for the society by taxing higher marginal tax rate.
Let's assume you only earn $1000 a month. This $1000 means a lot to you. It pays your rent, food, and other necessities.
But for others, Bill Gates for example, any extra $1000 means nothing to him. He can even give away the money to support aerospace programs. Well, some millionaires are exactly doing that.
So, if I, as the government, have to tax some money to support the programs I just mentioned earlier, I rather take the money from Bill Gates than from you. Consequently the marginal tax for rich people is indeed progressive. The more money a person makes, the additional dollar will be taxed more as it means less to that person. This tax rule minimizes the impact on the society as whole due to taxation.
Unfortunately, some people has a different utility curve when it comes to money. They will cry out loud whenever you take his money away even though they have little to no need for that money. We call them money-hungry self-centered cheap-asses. Or in short, Republicans.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Monday, October 13, 2008
Myth #6: I am picking McCain, not Palin
Some people will vote for McCain even though they agree Palin sucks. Their argument is simple: I am voting McCain for President, Not Palin.
Well, this argument is flawed.
First, Palin not just sucks. She is the queen of the Sucker Land and she sucks more than an industrial grade vacuum cleaner.
She can't even name a single newspaper! (Zero knowledge) She claims she understands international affair simple because she can visually see Russia from Alaska! (Zero logic) But she wants more power once she is the VP! (Is she the Weapon of Mass Destruction Bush is trying so hard to find??)
Secondly, Picking Palin as VP candidate is a utterly stupid irrational irresponsible decision. Anyone who makes that decision should not be allowed to make any other decisions for the rest of their lives, maybe except for the "paper or plastic" questions when checking out in a supermarket.
Well, MaCain made that decision! So, he is not qualified to be President. Case closed.
Finally, anyone voting for McCain without thinking about Palin is a dumb ass.
Take a look at a mortality table for a 72-year old. If you don't know what a mortality table is, google it. If you don't know how to use it, google it again. The bottom line is that there is 25% to 30% chance that McCain will die within the first term even without taking his 4 previous skin cancer history into consideration. So, you basically have 30% or higher chance to have Palin as the Head of the State by picking McCain. Some actuaries even put the odds much higher than 50%. If you don't think this is a serious risk worth considering when voting in November, you should not be allowed to vote. I rest my case.
Well, this argument is flawed.
First, Palin not just sucks. She is the queen of the Sucker Land and she sucks more than an industrial grade vacuum cleaner.
She can't even name a single newspaper! (Zero knowledge) She claims she understands international affair simple because she can visually see Russia from Alaska! (Zero logic) But she wants more power once she is the VP! (Is she the Weapon of Mass Destruction Bush is trying so hard to find??)
Secondly, Picking Palin as VP candidate is a utterly stupid irrational irresponsible decision. Anyone who makes that decision should not be allowed to make any other decisions for the rest of their lives, maybe except for the "paper or plastic" questions when checking out in a supermarket.
Well, MaCain made that decision! So, he is not qualified to be President. Case closed.
Finally, anyone voting for McCain without thinking about Palin is a dumb ass.
Take a look at a mortality table for a 72-year old. If you don't know what a mortality table is, google it. If you don't know how to use it, google it again. The bottom line is that there is 25% to 30% chance that McCain will die within the first term even without taking his 4 previous skin cancer history into consideration. So, you basically have 30% or higher chance to have Palin as the Head of the State by picking McCain. Some actuaries even put the odds much higher than 50%. If you don't think this is a serious risk worth considering when voting in November, you should not be allowed to vote. I rest my case.
2008 美国金融危机 (3) － 金融革命
步入70年代之后，美国政府清楚地意识到光靠财政部的力量已经不能继续支持提高美国住房占有率的神圣使命。房贷的需求不断的增长，得益于二战后涌现的生育潮，但政府资金在经济大环境下已经开始有点捉襟见肘。
如何解决这个资金缺口呢？
首先，房利美进行了彻底的私有化。
二战以来，美国房市表现相当好，房屋贷款风险低，回报高，作为一个房屋贷款二级市场的垄断机构，房利美是相当赚钱的。它就是美国财政部里生金鸡蛋的母鸡。平时没事的时候，母鸡生鸡蛋生得很开心，但每次缺钱的时候，主人就总想把母鸡卖掉换钱，也就是说去把房利美卖给投资者，不再是政府的部门。这一点，呵呵，和中国的国企上市倒是很像。
整个五六十年代，每次财政部没钱的时候，房利美私有化的讨论就像幽灵一样的浮现出来。但每次讨论讨论着，经济就渐渐的好点了，钱又来了，就没下文了。这么多年的讨论，其实有些地方已经为私有化铺好了道路，私有化似乎是棺材上钉-迟早的事，但是每次就差这么最后一口气。60年代末的经济萎靡正是提供了一个契机打上了最后一个钉子。这里细节很多，房利美最后分成两部分，一部分还是政府机构，继续向部分向部分国民的房屋贷款进行担保，提供二级市场，但这部分有点类似福利，只对很小部分国民有效；绝大部分业务变成非政府的上市公司，变成投资者拥有的私有经济。
然后，成立房地美来刺激竞争，防止垄断。
房地美也就是Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation)，成立于1970年，它基本上就是房利美的翻版，做一样的事情，就是对符合条件的房屋贷款提供二级市场的支持。房地美的建立是鼓励竞争，防止房利美一家垄断市场，但很滑稽的是，当政府在经营的时候，好像垄断没什么事，房利美独立存在了三十年都好好的，但一旦是私人企业，垄断就是万恶不赦的恶魔，一定要打倒，呵呵，正所谓只许州官放火，不许百姓点灯啊。不过有竞争倒也是好的，有利于二级市场的发展。
最后，建立房地产抵押债券市场
房地产债券其实就是把房地产贷款进行证券化，让很多条款都标准化，方便在公开市场买卖，创造了一种崭新的金融工具，极大的提高房地产贷款的流动性，让更多的投资者可以参与进来，从而扩大总体的资金来源。
我现在用一个家庭的例子来把这一切解释清楚。呵呵，这个东西比较复杂，大家别急，慢慢看。
假设老王现在想买一个60万的房子，但自己只有10万。老万就去花旗银行贷款买房。花旗银行就拿老王的房子作为抵押物，借给老王50万。老王答应每个月给银行还3000，30年还清。数学上一算，这笔贷款的利率大概是6%一年。
老王拿了这50万贷款，加上自己的10万储蓄，给了卖房子的建筑商60万，自己搬进了新家，非常开心。
第二天，老赵也看上了同一个住宅区的房子，和老王一样，老赵需要50万的贷款，他也去找花旗银行了。
银行呢，一方面很开心，一方面很痛苦。开心是因为在老王的贷款上赚钱了。假设银行融资成本是5%(低于老赵付给银行的6%），算起来等于每个月的成本是2700，也就是说这个房屋贷款能让银行一个月赚300块钱，算上30年的话，这个现金流的当前价值就有大概5万（也就是说银行的总成本是45万）。换句话说，银行贷款给老王50万，如果一切正常，银行能赚个5万。但痛苦在于银行把钱贷给老王了，剩下的资金不够50万了，不能再贷给老赵了，唉，赚不到钱了。
对于老王的贷款，银行也不是稳赚5万的，其中风险重重啊。如果老王突然没了工作，付不了每个月3000的钱，那银行就倒霉了。是，银行是可以去卖房子把贷款拿回来，但这也有风险，万一纽约地区房地产市场不好，那就麻烦了。这时候银行突然灵机一动，有办法了！
花旗银行给房美利打了个电话，想把这笔赚钱的贷款卖给房美利实现现金周转（假设贷款的条件符合房利美的要求）。
房利美看一下这个贷款，条件都符合规定（比如付款房子价值比，老王的信用评级，贷款金额等等一系列的指标），就答应买下来，价格上只能给银行46万。银行想了一下，还是不错的，45万的成本，卖了个46万，马上就赚了1万，不用300一个月的等个30年，而且毫无风险！并且马上资金到位，可以再把钱贷给老赵，又可以继续赚钱。银行就开开心心的答应了。其实银行说白了，就是赚了个一级市场发贷款的体力活，1万块钱可以看作是它作背景调查，物业评估的报酬。但这不错啊，毕竟是没有风险的活。等到老赵的贷款弄好了，银行就继续打电话给房利美，哈哈，又有一万到手。
房利美也很开心，46万的成本，买了一个50万的资产，预期可以赚4万，发放贷款前的体力活啥都不用管。至于风险，房利美不是很怕，因为它有好多好多好多的全国各地的贷款来分散风险。而且实在不行有房子抵押啊，卖房子好了。房子价值60万，就算从60万跌倒50万，钱还是可以拿回来，等于是保险加保险。
那房利美怎么来这么多钱去源源不断的买银行的贷款呢？一方面，作为独立上市公司，它能通过股票和债券等去融资。另一方面，它可以把买来的贷款证券化然后卖给市场上的投资者（保险公司，基金等等）。
证券化是这样实现的：
（1）成立一个独立的壳子公司，假设叫叫老王贷款证券化公司。
（2）把老王的房屋贷款转移到这个特殊的公司里，这也就是这公司的唯一资产。公司预期的现金流就是3000一个月。
（3）公司发行房贷款抵押债券给有兴趣的投资者，这个债券付给投资者的现金流就是这3000块钱。（当然这细节就比较复杂，3000涉及本金和利息两个部分，我就不多说了）房利美担保本金的偿付，但不担保利息，也不担保什么时候本金会被偿付。
（4）投资者看看这个现金流，用数学模型来看现金流的可能分布。大家请注意，3000一个月的现金流不是肯定的，如过将来利率下调，老王就可以去其它银行底价借钱，然后去还花旗银行的贷款，这样对于贷款持有者来说，一个月300块这样的赚钱买卖就消失了。所以，房贷款抵押债券投资者最大的风险是将来利率的波动，尽管本金被房利美担保了不会亏。最后投资者竞投47万去买债券。
好，这样一搞，房利美46万买的贷款，卖了47万，赚一万，也实现了资金周转，可以继续去买其他银行的房屋贷款。但房利美承受了在老王不付钱并且房子价值跌到50万以下的风险。在一般情况下，由于这个风险很小，所以赚1万就很不错了。而且资金回笼了，可以继续去赚钱。
房屋贷款债券的投资者呢？预期可以赚3万，但承受将来利率变化的风险。这个风险最大，所以得到的报酬也最多。今后的日子了，每天利率都会变化，这个债券的价格也一直在变，二级市场买卖频繁，一个流动性很强的资产就产生了。这个资产是相当吸引人的，它和普通的企业债券很不一样，它是跟着总体市场上的利率水平跑的，企业债券是跟着具体的公司财务状况跑的，由于这种差异，很多大型的债权基金都增加房屋贷款债券持有比例来分散投资风险。
好了，总算把这个最简化的例子说完了，累死我了。真正的数学计算要远比这个复杂，大家看看名堂好了，我有地方算错了别打人。
总体上看，这一系列的买卖贷款，实际上就是实现了资金的流动性，让市场参与者各取所需，各尽其能，极大程度上丰富了投资种类。这也就相当于引爆了一颗金融原子弹，从此金融创新源源不绝，奠定了今后35年蓬勃发展的金融革命。
但这颗原子弹也炸开了潘多拉的宝盒，到底最终是祸是福，咱们下回再见分晓。
如何解决这个资金缺口呢？
首先，房利美进行了彻底的私有化。
二战以来，美国房市表现相当好，房屋贷款风险低，回报高，作为一个房屋贷款二级市场的垄断机构，房利美是相当赚钱的。它就是美国财政部里生金鸡蛋的母鸡。平时没事的时候，母鸡生鸡蛋生得很开心，但每次缺钱的时候，主人就总想把母鸡卖掉换钱，也就是说去把房利美卖给投资者，不再是政府的部门。这一点，呵呵，和中国的国企上市倒是很像。
整个五六十年代，每次财政部没钱的时候，房利美私有化的讨论就像幽灵一样的浮现出来。但每次讨论讨论着，经济就渐渐的好点了，钱又来了，就没下文了。这么多年的讨论，其实有些地方已经为私有化铺好了道路，私有化似乎是棺材上钉-迟早的事，但是每次就差这么最后一口气。60年代末的经济萎靡正是提供了一个契机打上了最后一个钉子。这里细节很多，房利美最后分成两部分，一部分还是政府机构，继续向部分向部分国民的房屋贷款进行担保，提供二级市场，但这部分有点类似福利，只对很小部分国民有效；绝大部分业务变成非政府的上市公司，变成投资者拥有的私有经济。
然后，成立房地美来刺激竞争，防止垄断。
房地美也就是Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation)，成立于1970年，它基本上就是房利美的翻版，做一样的事情，就是对符合条件的房屋贷款提供二级市场的支持。房地美的建立是鼓励竞争，防止房利美一家垄断市场，但很滑稽的是，当政府在经营的时候，好像垄断没什么事，房利美独立存在了三十年都好好的，但一旦是私人企业，垄断就是万恶不赦的恶魔，一定要打倒，呵呵，正所谓只许州官放火，不许百姓点灯啊。不过有竞争倒也是好的，有利于二级市场的发展。
最后，建立房地产抵押债券市场
房地产债券其实就是把房地产贷款进行证券化，让很多条款都标准化，方便在公开市场买卖，创造了一种崭新的金融工具，极大的提高房地产贷款的流动性，让更多的投资者可以参与进来，从而扩大总体的资金来源。
我现在用一个家庭的例子来把这一切解释清楚。呵呵，这个东西比较复杂，大家别急，慢慢看。
假设老王现在想买一个60万的房子，但自己只有10万。老万就去花旗银行贷款买房。花旗银行就拿老王的房子作为抵押物，借给老王50万。老王答应每个月给银行还3000，30年还清。数学上一算，这笔贷款的利率大概是6%一年。
老王拿了这50万贷款，加上自己的10万储蓄，给了卖房子的建筑商60万，自己搬进了新家，非常开心。
第二天，老赵也看上了同一个住宅区的房子，和老王一样，老赵需要50万的贷款，他也去找花旗银行了。
银行呢，一方面很开心，一方面很痛苦。开心是因为在老王的贷款上赚钱了。假设银行融资成本是5%(低于老赵付给银行的6%），算起来等于每个月的成本是2700，也就是说这个房屋贷款能让银行一个月赚300块钱，算上30年的话，这个现金流的当前价值就有大概5万（也就是说银行的总成本是45万）。换句话说，银行贷款给老王50万，如果一切正常，银行能赚个5万。但痛苦在于银行把钱贷给老王了，剩下的资金不够50万了，不能再贷给老赵了，唉，赚不到钱了。
对于老王的贷款，银行也不是稳赚5万的，其中风险重重啊。如果老王突然没了工作，付不了每个月3000的钱，那银行就倒霉了。是，银行是可以去卖房子把贷款拿回来，但这也有风险，万一纽约地区房地产市场不好，那就麻烦了。这时候银行突然灵机一动，有办法了！
花旗银行给房美利打了个电话，想把这笔赚钱的贷款卖给房美利实现现金周转（假设贷款的条件符合房利美的要求）。
房利美看一下这个贷款，条件都符合规定（比如付款房子价值比，老王的信用评级，贷款金额等等一系列的指标），就答应买下来，价格上只能给银行46万。银行想了一下，还是不错的，45万的成本，卖了个46万，马上就赚了1万，不用300一个月的等个30年，而且毫无风险！并且马上资金到位，可以再把钱贷给老赵，又可以继续赚钱。银行就开开心心的答应了。其实银行说白了，就是赚了个一级市场发贷款的体力活，1万块钱可以看作是它作背景调查，物业评估的报酬。但这不错啊，毕竟是没有风险的活。等到老赵的贷款弄好了，银行就继续打电话给房利美，哈哈，又有一万到手。
房利美也很开心，46万的成本，买了一个50万的资产，预期可以赚4万，发放贷款前的体力活啥都不用管。至于风险，房利美不是很怕，因为它有好多好多好多的全国各地的贷款来分散风险。而且实在不行有房子抵押啊，卖房子好了。房子价值60万，就算从60万跌倒50万，钱还是可以拿回来，等于是保险加保险。
那房利美怎么来这么多钱去源源不断的买银行的贷款呢？一方面，作为独立上市公司，它能通过股票和债券等去融资。另一方面，它可以把买来的贷款证券化然后卖给市场上的投资者（保险公司，基金等等）。
证券化是这样实现的：
（1）成立一个独立的壳子公司，假设叫叫老王贷款证券化公司。
（2）把老王的房屋贷款转移到这个特殊的公司里，这也就是这公司的唯一资产。公司预期的现金流就是3000一个月。
（3）公司发行房贷款抵押债券给有兴趣的投资者，这个债券付给投资者的现金流就是这3000块钱。（当然这细节就比较复杂，3000涉及本金和利息两个部分，我就不多说了）房利美担保本金的偿付，但不担保利息，也不担保什么时候本金会被偿付。
（4）投资者看看这个现金流，用数学模型来看现金流的可能分布。大家请注意，3000一个月的现金流不是肯定的，如过将来利率下调，老王就可以去其它银行底价借钱，然后去还花旗银行的贷款，这样对于贷款持有者来说，一个月300块这样的赚钱买卖就消失了。所以，房贷款抵押债券投资者最大的风险是将来利率的波动，尽管本金被房利美担保了不会亏。最后投资者竞投47万去买债券。
好，这样一搞，房利美46万买的贷款，卖了47万，赚一万，也实现了资金周转，可以继续去买其他银行的房屋贷款。但房利美承受了在老王不付钱并且房子价值跌到50万以下的风险。在一般情况下，由于这个风险很小，所以赚1万就很不错了。而且资金回笼了，可以继续去赚钱。
房屋贷款债券的投资者呢？预期可以赚3万，但承受将来利率变化的风险。这个风险最大，所以得到的报酬也最多。今后的日子了，每天利率都会变化，这个债券的价格也一直在变，二级市场买卖频繁，一个流动性很强的资产就产生了。这个资产是相当吸引人的，它和普通的企业债券很不一样，它是跟着总体市场上的利率水平跑的，企业债券是跟着具体的公司财务状况跑的，由于这种差异，很多大型的债权基金都增加房屋贷款债券持有比例来分散投资风险。
好了，总算把这个最简化的例子说完了，累死我了。真正的数学计算要远比这个复杂，大家看看名堂好了，我有地方算错了别打人。
总体上看，这一系列的买卖贷款，实际上就是实现了资金的流动性，让市场参与者各取所需，各尽其能，极大程度上丰富了投资种类。这也就相当于引爆了一颗金融原子弹，从此金融创新源源不绝，奠定了今后35年蓬勃发展的金融革命。
但这颗原子弹也炸开了潘多拉的宝盒，到底最终是祸是福，咱们下回再见分晓。
Sunday, October 12, 2008
2008 美国金融危机 (2) － 房地产市场的春天
经过大萧条之后，美国房地产行业在40年代开始进入了第一个蓬勃发展的春天。在1940到1970这短短的30年里，全美家庭住房拥有率从不到45%提升到65%左右。房地产行业的兴起，带动了一系列的周边产业（建筑，材料，运输，服务等等）的快速发展，为同期美国经济的高速发展做出了很大贡献。
在这欢欣鼓舞的大旗背后，有一位默默无闻的功臣暗自发光，那就是Fannie Mae（房利美）。呵呵，为什么这么说呢，且听我细细道来。
美国一直是一个非常鼓励家庭拥有住房的国家。为了提高住房拥有率，国家可谓不择手段，在税收政策上对买房者的优惠之大几乎等同于对租房者的歧视，就连在文化上，都把美国梦诠释为是“有房，有车，有狗，有小孩”，呵呵，把Land of Freedom彻底量化。
房利美也是这种理念的产物。
房利美最初公开的Mission Statement（任务宣言）就是通过对美国房地产贷款市场的支持来提高美国的住房拥有率。作为政府的分支，房利美从政府那里拿到资金，从地方银行手里购买符合资格房产贷款，然后把这些贷款转手卖个有兴趣的投资者，实现资金流动，然后进一步去买地方银行的贷款，实现良性循环。
通过这样的操作，房利美实际上做到了以下几点：
（1）成功建立了房贷的二手市场。地方银行可以放开手脚去给个人发放贷款，因为银行们随时可以很方便的把贷款卖给房利美实现资金周转。从房利美拿来的钱，地方银行可以进一步发放新的房屋贷款，实现循环，从而充分发挥他们在一级市场的作用（对个人信用进行审评，对房子的估价，对贷款进行维护和管理等等）
（2）成功满足投资者的投资需求。能发放房屋贷款的只有银行，但希望投资于房地产贷款业务的可是大有人在。比如保险公司，退休基金等等，都喜欢房贷业务的经济效益，但他们不可能，也不允许向个人直接发放贷款，所以只能通过二级市场来满足他们的投资需求。同时在二级市场里，投资者们不用管一级市场的那些琐事（对贷款者的信用评估，对物业的价值评估等等），何乐不为。二级市场和一级市场的分离，使得地方银行和市场投资者彻底职责分工，各自发挥自己的特长。
（3）成功实现资金的东西调度。资金和房子有很大的区域性。在那时候，东部资金多，但房屋贷款市场比较成熟，缺乏增长点；西部房地产市场发展迅速，但缺乏资金。房利美把西部的房屋贷款买来，再卖给东部的投资者，有效的实现资金调度。
（4）成功分散房贷投资者的风险。房产贷款的特点是地域性很强。在没有二级市场的时候，纽约的银行只能拿着一大把纽约的房屋贷款。一旦纽约发生什么天灾人祸，这些银行就倒霉了。但自从有了二级市场之后，大家的投资组合就能够实现地域性的多元化。纽约银行或保险公司能拥有全国各地的房屋贷款，任何一个地方的天灾人祸都不会影响到总体资产的健康状况，从而降低了系统风险。
所以说，从本质上讲房利美起增强了房贷市场的效率，降低了地域风险和交易成本，促进了各个金融机构在房贷市场里的职责分工，最终老百姓受益，提高住房拥有率。
但当美国步入60年代末期的时候，经济状况开始恶化，美国政府资金捉胫见肘，原油价格上涨，导致通胀提高，长期房贷利率飞涨，强烈抑制了美国房地产市场发展。作为房贷市场的中流砥柱，房利美到底何去何从？
在这欢欣鼓舞的大旗背后，有一位默默无闻的功臣暗自发光，那就是Fannie Mae（房利美）。呵呵，为什么这么说呢，且听我细细道来。
美国一直是一个非常鼓励家庭拥有住房的国家。为了提高住房拥有率，国家可谓不择手段，在税收政策上对买房者的优惠之大几乎等同于对租房者的歧视，就连在文化上，都把美国梦诠释为是“有房，有车，有狗，有小孩”，呵呵，把Land of Freedom彻底量化。
房利美也是这种理念的产物。
房利美最初公开的Mission Statement（任务宣言）就是通过对美国房地产贷款市场的支持来提高美国的住房拥有率。作为政府的分支，房利美从政府那里拿到资金，从地方银行手里购买符合资格房产贷款，然后把这些贷款转手卖个有兴趣的投资者，实现资金流动，然后进一步去买地方银行的贷款，实现良性循环。
通过这样的操作，房利美实际上做到了以下几点：
（1）成功建立了房贷的二手市场。地方银行可以放开手脚去给个人发放贷款，因为银行们随时可以很方便的把贷款卖给房利美实现资金周转。从房利美拿来的钱，地方银行可以进一步发放新的房屋贷款，实现循环，从而充分发挥他们在一级市场的作用（对个人信用进行审评，对房子的估价，对贷款进行维护和管理等等）
（2）成功满足投资者的投资需求。能发放房屋贷款的只有银行，但希望投资于房地产贷款业务的可是大有人在。比如保险公司，退休基金等等，都喜欢房贷业务的经济效益，但他们不可能，也不允许向个人直接发放贷款，所以只能通过二级市场来满足他们的投资需求。同时在二级市场里，投资者们不用管一级市场的那些琐事（对贷款者的信用评估，对物业的价值评估等等），何乐不为。二级市场和一级市场的分离，使得地方银行和市场投资者彻底职责分工，各自发挥自己的特长。
（3）成功实现资金的东西调度。资金和房子有很大的区域性。在那时候，东部资金多，但房屋贷款市场比较成熟，缺乏增长点；西部房地产市场发展迅速，但缺乏资金。房利美把西部的房屋贷款买来，再卖给东部的投资者，有效的实现资金调度。
（4）成功分散房贷投资者的风险。房产贷款的特点是地域性很强。在没有二级市场的时候，纽约的银行只能拿着一大把纽约的房屋贷款。一旦纽约发生什么天灾人祸，这些银行就倒霉了。但自从有了二级市场之后，大家的投资组合就能够实现地域性的多元化。纽约银行或保险公司能拥有全国各地的房屋贷款，任何一个地方的天灾人祸都不会影响到总体资产的健康状况，从而降低了系统风险。
所以说，从本质上讲房利美起增强了房贷市场的效率，降低了地域风险和交易成本，促进了各个金融机构在房贷市场里的职责分工，最终老百姓受益，提高住房拥有率。
但当美国步入60年代末期的时候，经济状况开始恶化，美国政府资金捉胫见肘，原油价格上涨，导致通胀提高，长期房贷利率飞涨，强烈抑制了美国房地产市场发展。作为房贷市场的中流砥柱，房利美到底何去何从？
Friday, October 10, 2008
2008 美国金融危机 (1) － 起源
看着满屏幕的红色数字不停的翻动，全世界各大股指今天又一次大跌，从年初到现在已经跌了４０％了，但是还是看不到反弹的希望。
我打开我的个人股票帐户，看着看着，突然有点头晕，恶心的想吐，我觉得我比刘三姐还苦，这日子真不让人活了。
哎，我决定要化悲痛为力量，想把这次惊天地泣鬼神的金融风波从头到尾说一说，毕竟很多小读者们还是很想知道其中缘由的。
希望我可以象司马迁一样的在逆境中写出惊世之作。啊，我太伟大了！！（不过他好像被割了蛋蛋，应该还是比我惨点的，我自认不如啊）
＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿
起源
面对这个号称为“自１９２９年大萧条以来最大的经济危机”，大家对起源都是众说纷纭。有人说是金融衍生证券的泛滥，有人说是房地产借贷种下的祸根，还有人说是投资银行的高杠杆，但我觉得要真的追溯其根本，那我们必须要回到１９２９年的大萧条去看看究竟。（呵呵，这还是很有点讽刺意味的啊）
１９２９到１９３３，是美国有史以来危害最大的经济危机。在短短的四年里，股票市场下跌了８０％，ＧＤＰ下跌了２５％，农产品价格下降了５０％，失业率高达２５％，接近９０００间银行倒闭。这些数据在现在的眼光里都是无法想象的。
至于１９２９大萧条的起因，无非以下5点：
(1) 融资成本低廉 （ease of credit)
(2) 国民经济负债过高，经济杠杆过高 (high leverage in both consumer and corporate levels)
(3) 公司报告发现假账纷纭，投资者信心全无
(4) 生产经营规模过大
(5) 中央银行货币政策失败，导致银行系统链式反应般的挤兑，最终银行体系崩溃
呵呵，是不是看得一身冷汗？除了第5点之外，前4点都是看得很眼熟啊。（1）（２）（3）在２００７前后都是有发生，（4）是被庞大的金融衍生工具市场替代了，而（5）呢，就是现在美联署和国会努力想要避免的。这是不是历史惊人的巧合呢？还是经济周期不可逃脱的陷阱？呵呵
１９３２年，在经济问题最严峻的时候，罗斯福上台，民主党人，很特殊的总统（是个坐轮椅的残疾人），他上台之后就提出以下几点来对付萧条：
(1) 成立各种政府机构来加大对金融企业的监管
(2) 提高对企业的税收，尤其是那些盈利状况非常好的企业
(3) 消减联邦政府支出
(4) 增强福利来帮助老百姓渡过难关
罗斯福通过了一系列的法律来稳定银行系统，扩大就业机会，以及安定人心。这也就是所谓的“罗斯福新政”。
新成立的政府机构包括SEC, FDIC, Social Security System等等。最终这些政策凸显成效，罗斯福还最后破天荒的当了3届总统，当然这些都是后话。
看到这里，是不是又一身冷汗？呵呵，历史惊人的巧合啊
说了半天，还没说到这次经济风波的源泉，哈哈，别着急。
其中一个新成立的机构我刚才没提到，那就是1938年成立的Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae)，中文翻译得很好听，“房利美”，他的诞生主要是帮助普通老百姓实现home ownership。政府通过房利美，从地方银行手里买来符合条件的房屋贷款，从根本上让地方的银行放开手脚的去发放房屋贷款给符合条件的老百姓，从而稳定房市，稳定社区。要知道30年代初，好不容易活下来的银行也是顾虑重重，毕竟资本金不足，大家都在苟延残喘，是不大敢做长期房屋贷款业务的。房利美的成立，很大程度上给银行体系打了一个强心剂，使得信用良好的正常家庭能够买得上房子，铺垫了美国房地产市场今后60年的稳定发展。
呵呵，但是every rose has its thorn, 这房利美其实也就是这次2008经济风暴的导火索。真是成也萧何，败也萧何啊。
各位看官，预知后事如何，请听下回分解。
我打开我的个人股票帐户，看着看着，突然有点头晕，恶心的想吐，我觉得我比刘三姐还苦，这日子真不让人活了。
哎，我决定要化悲痛为力量，想把这次惊天地泣鬼神的金融风波从头到尾说一说，毕竟很多小读者们还是很想知道其中缘由的。
希望我可以象司马迁一样的在逆境中写出惊世之作。啊，我太伟大了！！（不过他好像被割了蛋蛋，应该还是比我惨点的，我自认不如啊）
＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿＿
起源
面对这个号称为“自１９２９年大萧条以来最大的经济危机”，大家对起源都是众说纷纭。有人说是金融衍生证券的泛滥，有人说是房地产借贷种下的祸根，还有人说是投资银行的高杠杆，但我觉得要真的追溯其根本，那我们必须要回到１９２９年的大萧条去看看究竟。（呵呵，这还是很有点讽刺意味的啊）
１９２９到１９３３，是美国有史以来危害最大的经济危机。在短短的四年里，股票市场下跌了８０％，ＧＤＰ下跌了２５％，农产品价格下降了５０％，失业率高达２５％，接近９０００间银行倒闭。这些数据在现在的眼光里都是无法想象的。
至于１９２９大萧条的起因，无非以下5点：
(1) 融资成本低廉 （ease of credit)
(2) 国民经济负债过高，经济杠杆过高 (high leverage in both consumer and corporate levels)
(3) 公司报告发现假账纷纭，投资者信心全无
(4) 生产经营规模过大
(5) 中央银行货币政策失败，导致银行系统链式反应般的挤兑，最终银行体系崩溃
呵呵，是不是看得一身冷汗？除了第5点之外，前4点都是看得很眼熟啊。（1）（２）（3）在２００７前后都是有发生，（4）是被庞大的金融衍生工具市场替代了，而（5）呢，就是现在美联署和国会努力想要避免的。这是不是历史惊人的巧合呢？还是经济周期不可逃脱的陷阱？呵呵
１９３２年，在经济问题最严峻的时候，罗斯福上台，民主党人，很特殊的总统（是个坐轮椅的残疾人），他上台之后就提出以下几点来对付萧条：
(1) 成立各种政府机构来加大对金融企业的监管
(2) 提高对企业的税收，尤其是那些盈利状况非常好的企业
(3) 消减联邦政府支出
(4) 增强福利来帮助老百姓渡过难关
罗斯福通过了一系列的法律来稳定银行系统，扩大就业机会，以及安定人心。这也就是所谓的“罗斯福新政”。
新成立的政府机构包括SEC, FDIC, Social Security System等等。最终这些政策凸显成效，罗斯福还最后破天荒的当了3届总统，当然这些都是后话。
看到这里，是不是又一身冷汗？呵呵，历史惊人的巧合啊
说了半天，还没说到这次经济风波的源泉，哈哈，别着急。
其中一个新成立的机构我刚才没提到，那就是1938年成立的Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae)，中文翻译得很好听，“房利美”，他的诞生主要是帮助普通老百姓实现home ownership。政府通过房利美，从地方银行手里买来符合条件的房屋贷款，从根本上让地方的银行放开手脚的去发放房屋贷款给符合条件的老百姓，从而稳定房市，稳定社区。要知道30年代初，好不容易活下来的银行也是顾虑重重，毕竟资本金不足，大家都在苟延残喘，是不大敢做长期房屋贷款业务的。房利美的成立，很大程度上给银行体系打了一个强心剂，使得信用良好的正常家庭能够买得上房子，铺垫了美国房地产市场今后60年的稳定发展。
呵呵，但是every rose has its thorn, 这房利美其实也就是这次2008经济风暴的导火索。真是成也萧何，败也萧何啊。
各位看官，预知后事如何，请听下回分解。
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Don't blame Republicans. They are jus kids.
I just recently discovered that Republicans are actually bunch of 12-year old. Here is my evidence:
(1) Language
Kids like to invent words. So do Republicans.
"They misunderestimate me" - George W. Bush
"We've gotta promote the leadership that is willing to condemn terror and, at the same time, work toward the embetterment of the lives of the Palestinian people. " - George W. Bush
"We are mavericky!" - Sarah Palin
(2) View of the world
Kids tend to view the world in a black and white fashion. Good vs. Evil. Snow White is good, and Big Bad Wolf is bad. (Well, they even have the world "Bad" in the the middle of the name, so you get the point.)
President George W. Bush is sharing a similar view. He is apparently living in a Marvel Comic world, where bad dudes are teaming up to get him. There are "evil doers" and "axis of evil" trying to hurt us. When asked about Iran, Bush point-blank said "these are assholes". Wow! How insightful!
Seriously, I think all we need is a cape and Bush is good to go.
(3) Favorite game/sport
Kids tend to do those pointless, repetitive, boring things over and over and always get entertained.
So, not surprisingly the #1 redneck sport is NASCAR. Basically it's very similar to a hamster in a cage, you are driving tirelessly in circles.
OK, I know there are more to it but still, you are running in fucking circles! How undesirably boring that is! Btw, did I mention how retarded the car looks? Why would I ever want a detergent on my car?
(1) Language
Kids like to invent words. So do Republicans.
"They misunderestimate me" - George W. Bush
"We've gotta promote the leadership that is willing to condemn terror and, at the same time, work toward the embetterment of the lives of the Palestinian people. " - George W. Bush
"We are mavericky!" - Sarah Palin
(2) View of the world
Kids tend to view the world in a black and white fashion. Good vs. Evil. Snow White is good, and Big Bad Wolf is bad. (Well, they even have the world "Bad" in the the middle of the name, so you get the point.)
President George W. Bush is sharing a similar view. He is apparently living in a Marvel Comic world, where bad dudes are teaming up to get him. There are "evil doers" and "axis of evil" trying to hurt us. When asked about Iran, Bush point-blank said "these are assholes". Wow! How insightful!
Seriously, I think all we need is a cape and Bush is good to go.
(3) Favorite game/sport
Kids tend to do those pointless, repetitive, boring things over and over and always get entertained.
So, not surprisingly the #1 redneck sport is NASCAR. Basically it's very similar to a hamster in a cage, you are driving tirelessly in circles.
OK, I know there are more to it but still, you are running in fucking circles! How undesirably boring that is! Btw, did I mention how retarded the car looks? Why would I ever want a detergent on my car?
电脑白痴
我觉得我电脑挺白痴的，但今天网上看到这个白痴专辑，发现我还是很厉害的啊
以下这些都是现实的真人真事，华尔街日报2007年1月上提到的：
1. Compaq is considering changing the command "Press Any Key" to "Press Return Key" because of the flood of calls asking where the "Any" key is.
2. AST technical support had a caller complaining that her mouse was hard to control with the dust cover on. The cover turned out to be the plastic bag the mouse was packaged in.
3. Another AST customer was asked to send a copy of her defective diskettes. A few days later a letter arrived from the customer along with photocopies of the floppies.
4. Another Dell customer called to say he couldn't get his computer to fax anything. After 40 minutes of trouble-shooting, the technician discovered the man was trying to fax a piece of paper by holding it in front of the monitor screen and hitting the "send" key.
5. Yet another Dell customer called to complain that his keyboard no longer worked. He had cleaned it by filling up his tub with soap and water and soaking the keyboard for a day, then removing all the keys and washing them individually.
6. A Dell technician received a call from a customer who was enraged because his computer had told him he was "bad and an invalid". The tech explained that the computer's "bad command" and "invalid" responses shouldn't be taken personally.
7. True story from a Novell NetWire SysOp:
Caller: "Hello, is this Tech Support?"
Tech: "Yes, it is. How may I help you?"
Caller: "The cup holder on my PC is broken and I am within my warranty period. How do I go about getting that fixed?"
Tech: "I'm sorry, but did you say a cup holder?"
Caller: "Yes, it's attached to the front of my computer."
Tech: "Please excuse me if I seem a bit stumped, It's because I am. Did you receive this as part of a promotional, at a trade show? How did you get this cup holder? Does it have any trademark on it?"
Caller: "It came with my computer, I don't know anything about a promotional. It just has '4X' on it."
At this point the Tech Rep had to mute the caller, because he couldn't stand it. He was laughing too hard. The caller had been using the load drawer of the CD-ROM drive as a cup holder, and snapped it off the drive!
8. Another IBM customer had troubles installing software and rang for support. "I put in the first disk, and that was OK. It said to put in the second disk, and had some problems with the disk. When it said to put in the third disk - I couldn't even fit it in..." The user hadn't realized that "Insert Disk 2" meant to remove Disk 1 first.
9. A confused caller to IBM was having troubles printing documents. He told the technician that the computer had said it "couldn't find printer". The user had also tried turning the computer screen to face the printer - but that his computer still couldn't "see" the printer.
以下这些都是现实的真人真事，华尔街日报2007年1月上提到的：
1. Compaq is considering changing the command "Press Any Key" to "Press Return Key" because of the flood of calls asking where the "Any" key is.
2. AST technical support had a caller complaining that her mouse was hard to control with the dust cover on. The cover turned out to be the plastic bag the mouse was packaged in.
3. Another AST customer was asked to send a copy of her defective diskettes. A few days later a letter arrived from the customer along with photocopies of the floppies.
4. Another Dell customer called to say he couldn't get his computer to fax anything. After 40 minutes of trouble-shooting, the technician discovered the man was trying to fax a piece of paper by holding it in front of the monitor screen and hitting the "send" key.
5. Yet another Dell customer called to complain that his keyboard no longer worked. He had cleaned it by filling up his tub with soap and water and soaking the keyboard for a day, then removing all the keys and washing them individually.
6. A Dell technician received a call from a customer who was enraged because his computer had told him he was "bad and an invalid". The tech explained that the computer's "bad command" and "invalid" responses shouldn't be taken personally.
7. True story from a Novell NetWire SysOp:
Caller: "Hello, is this Tech Support?"
Tech: "Yes, it is. How may I help you?"
Caller: "The cup holder on my PC is broken and I am within my warranty period. How do I go about getting that fixed?"
Tech: "I'm sorry, but did you say a cup holder?"
Caller: "Yes, it's attached to the front of my computer."
Tech: "Please excuse me if I seem a bit stumped, It's because I am. Did you receive this as part of a promotional, at a trade show? How did you get this cup holder? Does it have any trademark on it?"
Caller: "It came with my computer, I don't know anything about a promotional. It just has '4X' on it."
At this point the Tech Rep had to mute the caller, because he couldn't stand it. He was laughing too hard. The caller had been using the load drawer of the CD-ROM drive as a cup holder, and snapped it off the drive!
8. Another IBM customer had troubles installing software and rang for support. "I put in the first disk, and that was OK. It said to put in the second disk, and had some problems with the disk. When it said to put in the third disk - I couldn't even fit it in..." The user hadn't realized that "Insert Disk 2" meant to remove Disk 1 first.
9. A confused caller to IBM was having troubles printing documents. He told the technician that the computer had said it "couldn't find printer". The user had also tried turning the computer screen to face the printer - but that his computer still couldn't "see" the printer.
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